Sanford, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

942
FXUS62 KRAH 250902
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will move north as a warm front across NC and VA today, only
to move south as a cold front again tonight. Cold high pressure will
follow and ridge across the Middle Atlantic on Friday. The front
will then continue to waver across the Carolinas ahead of a strong
cold front that will sweep across the region on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Thursday...

* Unseasonably mild/warm

A shortwave perturbation in nwly flow aloft, now centered over nrn
OH/nern IN, will progress across and offshore the srn Middle
Atlantic through the morning-midday hours, as will a preceding
low/mid-level WAA regime. A sub-tropical high over the Gulf, and
ridge initially extending across the Plains and MS Valley, will
otherwise break down and promote increasingly-zonal flow across the
mid-latitudes by 12Z Fri.

At the surface, a ~1025 mb high now centered along the Middle
Atlantic coast will drift offshore this morning. In return, sly flow
that has already developed lightly across w-cntl NC early this
morning, a warm front will retreat newd across NC and VA today. The
front will then move swwd, in backdoor cold frontal-fashion, and
across cntl NC tonight. Cold high pressure will follow and ridge
across the Middle Atlantic later tonight-Friday.

Multi-layered ceilings and a lead area of scattered showers/
sprinkles, accompanying the aforementioned low/mid-level WAA regime
and along the srn periphery of an area of electrified, elevated
convection now progressing across OH, will progress ewd and out of
cntl NC through midday. Partial clearing will result, with an
associated mix of afternoon sun and clouds (more of the former over
the srn Piedmont/Sandhills) that will favor another unseasonably
mild/warm day, with temperatures mostly in the lwr-mid 70s and
accompanied by swly surface winds that will strengthen and gust up
to 20-30 mph during the afternoon.

The passage of the backdoor cold front tonight will be marked by an
abrupt wind shift to nely, with a couple or so hour period of
stronger CAA and mixing immediately behind it that will probably
support additional wind gusts to around 20 or so mph. A band of post-
frontal cloudiness and patches of light rain/sprinkles will follow
the front swwd, with temperatures by Fri morning likely to range
from mid 30s ne to mid/upr 40s sw.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

An initially low-amplitude shortwave trough over the upr Great Lakes
will amplify as it progresses ewd and across the Great Lakes and
Northeast through Fri night, with associated glancing and weak
height falls that will progress across cntl NC Fri.

At the surface, cP high pressure will ridge, from its 1030-1035 mb
center over QC, swd and across the Middle Atlantic. Along its srn
periphery, a front will become quasi-stationary over SC on Fri.
Although mass fields support a nwd retreat of that front across NC
Fri night, nocturnal cooling will likely cause associated warming to
occur above a the surface inversion Fri night and consequently delay
the realization of milder/warmer surface temperatures until Sat.

While Fri will be seasonably cool and generally cloudy, rain chances
appear slim given the only glancing and weak influence of the
shortwave trough progressing across the Great Lakes. A limited
diurnal temperature range will result from the ridging and weak
(mainly dry) CAD, with highs Fri centered in the mid 40s to mid 50s
from north to south and Fri night lows mostly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM Wednesday...

Upper pattern: A mid-level ridge will briefly re-establish itself
over the Deep South on Saturday ahead of a deeper trough that will
dig down from Canada and move across the eastern US late Sunday into
Tuesday. Nwly flow and rising mid-level heights aloft will spread
east across central NC Wednesday into Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday: Guidance continues to trend slower with the
arrival of the upper trough and strong sfc cold front early next
week. As such, largely nwly flow aloft will promote dry conditions
both Saturday and Sunday.  Saturday continues to trend warmer with
highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. On Sunday, upstream perturbations
associated with the approaching upper trough will promote a bit more
cloudiness. Additionally, an area of high pressure will drift east
across the Mid-Atlantic and possibly extend nely flow down into
central NC.  This setup would promote cooler highs on Sunday in the
upper 50s (N) to mid 60s (S).

Monday through Thursday: Most guidance now has the front moving
across central NC later Monday afternoon, with CAA ramping up later
Monday night. As such highs on Monday have trended much warmer with
solid swly flow ahead of the front pushing highs in the mid to upper
60s. Associated rain chances will peak late Wednesday afternoon and
into the early overnight period. However, ensembles continue to
highlight low QPF with this system (95th percentiles highlight only
a few tenths of an inch to maybe a half inch through Tuesday
morning). Still expecting some stronger post-frontal nwly gusts of
20 to 30 mph Monday afternoon into the early overnight period Monday
night. Temps will drop into the mid to upper 20s early Tuesday
morning. Highs on Tuesday will struggle to reach lower 40s while
overnight lows drop into lower to mid 20s.

Low-level thicknesses remain lower through the end of the week with
a potentially re-enforcing cold front Friday into Saturday. As such,
current signs show the potential for a chilly start to the new year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected through 06Z Fri, but with ceilings as
low as 4-7 thousand ft at times through this evening. Patches of
light rain or sprinkles may result from those VFR ceilings later
this morning, as a disturbance aloft overspreads the region.
Otherwise, the nwd retreat of a surface warm front into VA today
will cause light sely surface winds this morning to veer and
strengthen/become gusty into the upr teens/lwr 20s kts from around
15-16Z through sunset, then diminish. The front will return swwd as
a cold front tonight, during which time a wind shift to nely will be
accompanied by gusty surface winds for a couple of hours immediately
following the passage of the front. A 75-100 mile wide band of post-
frontal, 2000-4000 ft ceilings will also accompany the front and
move swwd and across cntl NC tonight, with associated ceilings
likely to last for 3-6 hours at any given location as the cloud
band passes with the front.

Outlook: The aforementioned frontal zone will continue to waver
across NC through the weekend, with related periods of mostly MVFR
ceilings most likely on Fri and again Sun-Sun night. A stronger cold
front will sweep across the region with a chance of rain and
additional flight restrictions on Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS